by Daniel Bunn
In 2004, the Port of Charleston took its inner harbor to a
depth of 45 feet making it the deepest port in the South Atlantic. Since that
time, the port has risen to become the 8th most active U.S. port as measured by
the dollar value of goods handled. However, with the ever-constant forces of
globalization and technological progress at work, it is now necessary for the
port to be dredged to a depth of 50 feet. The simple reason for this is that
bigger ships are on their way. Even the Panama Canal is being altered to
accommodate larger container ships. Although a difference of 5 feet might not
sound like much, this change is important for allowing some of the larger
container ships into the port. Technically speaking, the economies of scale
that are at work in the shipping industry are going to continue to be
accommodated by the Charleston port.
The potential economic impact of this deepening project is
hard to measure, so it is simplest to look at the level of activity supported
by the current port and use that as a baseline to project a general expansion
on this base. The 2008 Economic Impact Study completed by the South Carolina
State Ports Authority found that 10.9% of state jobs are supported by
port-related activity. The location of this activity is represented in the
figure below taken from that report.
Just within the state, there is an obvious clustering of
port-related activity in the Northwest corner particularly along Interstate
Highway 85. What is interesting about this corridor is that it is becoming less
and less of an independent economic region as it becomes more and more
integrated with the cities of Charlotte, NC, and Atlanta, GA, both of which are
very large centers of economic activity for the Southeast US. So, it’s entirely
possible that even if the port did not exist, there would still be a higher
level of concentrated economic activity in the Piedmont region.
Now back to the port.
If the port of Charleston supports so much activity in the
Northwest corner of South Carolina, then it can be assumed that the deepening
project will simply increase the amount of activity in this region and along
with international trade-related activities, other intermediate functions will
arise such as financing and non-tradable services. This is because a deeper
port that can accommodate larger ships that bring more goods in and out of
South Carolina and, in particular, the Piedmont region, will facilitate an
increase of the level of economic activity as well as the amount of
concentration in the Northwest part of the state. Though it is difficult to say
how quickly these effects will take place (the deepening project is not due to
be completed for another 10-13 years) it is certain that increased
trade-related activity will appear even before the project is completed.
Some other factors to consider when determining what the
impact of this project will be include the widening and deepening of the Panama
Canal, the joint effort between Georgia and South Carolina to establish another
port on the Savannah river in Jasper County, SC, as well as the deepening of
the port in Savannah, GA. These four things, including the deepening of the port
in Charleston, will surely have a large combined impact on the states of South
Carolina and Georgia with the largest impact within the state of South Carolina
falling in the Northwest corner as the Atlanta and Charlotte economic areas
spill over into the cities of Greenville and Spartanburg.
With Paul Krugman’s economic geography model and its
extensions in mind, I believe that the lower costs of trade faced by market
participants in this area will probably lead to stronger forces of
agglomeration with a continual increase in the size of the agglomerated area.
Perhaps, as the trade costs continue to fall, the city of Charleston will
expand its role as a location for facilitating trade rather than an economic
center in and of itself. However, the small towns in South Carolina will
probably continue to shrink as the spreading of economic activity continues to
decline.
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