Saturday, December 24, 2011

Texas Toll Roads: The Flawed Benefits and Costs


by Alexander Simmons

As Texas is faced with a burgeoning population and further economic development, its poor transportation infrastructure becomes a greater issue. In the past decade, the state has chosen to address this problem through toll roads financed by public-private partnerships. Currently, Texas lawmakers are debating building new toll roads or converting already existing highways into tolls. In theory, tolls help improve the mobility of the local population, prevent congestion, ameliorate road quality, decrease the amount of time needed to construct roads, increase development, boost productivity from time saved, and avoid tax increases. Many of these benefits are indeed factual and have little tradeoff; however, others are flawed. Moreover, there are costs associated with toll ways that policymakers seem unaware of. With its already widespread usage and possible expansion, it is important that policymakers consider the tradeoffs associated with toll roads.



Flawed Benefits
Congestion
Theory states that new toll roads decrease congestion by providing new road alternatives. However, toll roads often only solve congestion problems for a small portion of the population. Residents within a mile from the toll road usually get the highest amount of usage, while those further away are relegated to other more congested routes. Additionally, many citizens cannot financially afford to drive tolls regularly. Thus, there ends up being a lopsided share of traffic between the two road networks and lifestyle inequality. The toll ways are usually uncongested and sometimes receive sparse usage, while the free roads face heavy traffic that result in travel times that are twice that of the tolls.

Development
Theory urges that toll ways improve consumer access to local business and thus, further economic development along the road. However, there is little evidence to support this in the short run. According to Sukumar Kalmanje’s research, Texas toll ways attract additional trips to local business by a negligent 1% and thus, have almost no effect on short-term development. Although, in the long run, it is likely that economic development will follow the route of the toll way and lead to agglomeration. Unfortunately, there is not enough evidence from Texas toll ways to support this argument.

Tax Increases
Due to Texas’s balance budget requirement, road funding cannot be done without either cutting another government program or increasing taxes. In theory, toll ways opt as a method of building roads without increasing taxes. Yet, tolls are essentially a consumption tax on driving. Instead of paying a road tax in a lump sum, residents contribute on a daily basis.

Costs
Toll Price Increases
Currently, all toll contracts in Texas grant private contractors the right to raise toll prices on an annual basis. These increases are often tied to an inflation based index or revenue maximization formula. Proponents insist that road prices should increase proportionally with the prices of other goods. However, this argument ignores importance of roads. Consumers have the option to remove other goods from their consumption basket, but cannot do the same with driving. Additionally, price increases are allowed during recessions or oil shocks and successfully worsen downturns.

Politically Unpopular
There is widespread distain for tolls in Texas. Despite their many benefits, Texans view them as a form of double taxation and resent the constant increase in prices. At some point, the general consensus of the population must be considered by representatives.

Unwanted Foreign Influence
Since most toll roads in the United States have been built by public agencies, there is virtually no private sector toll industry. Therefore, large toll contracts are frequently given to foreign companies. In the midst of an economic downturn and growing concerns of globalization, many critics cite this as a poor economic practice and claim it exposes the United States to security risks. In reality, the foreign firms originate from strong ally countries and employ almost entirely Americans on the projects. Thus, the foreign influence has no measurable negative effect. However, while this argument is not realistic, policymakers still must consider the general perception of the public.

Opportunity Costs
As with any government sponsored project, there are opportunity costs policymakers should consider. In this case, it its best to look at the opportunity costs within transportation infrastructure improvement. For instance, funding could be directed to public transportation options, which are severely lacking in Texas. If the general stigma attached to public transportation in Texas could be overcome, the economic gains and those that benefit could be much greater than in any road project. However, large scale public transportation projects require a substantial investment and at this point, there is little political support for such spending.

Conclusion
As policymakers debate about how to solve Texas’ infrastructure issues, it is important that they properly measure the often cited benefits of toll ways with the costs mentioned above. If purely publicly funded roads without tolls are no longer an option due to budget constraints and public transportation projects are off the table, toll roads built via public-private partnerships may indeed be the best option for Texans. However, this does not mean that policymakers can accept toll projects naively and ignore taxpayers’ opinions. 

Crossing the Scandinavian Waters: Oresund Bridge


by Katalin Molnarfi

Copenhagen is a fairly small, but rather cool and well-run city, dressed with posters advertising green energy. Though nothing characterises it more than its delicate Oresund Bridge, the longest of its type in Europe, and winner of the IABSE Outstanding Structure Award. Board a train in Copenhagen and in a comfortable twenty minutes you will find yourself in Malmo, Sweden's third-largest city. The Copenhagen international airport is also a mere fifteen minutes far away, connecting the bridge with the rest of the world. This year marks the 11th anniversary that Sweden and Denmark opened their much-talked-about bridge-and-tunnel across the Oresund strait, four months ahead of the original schedule and under budget . Yes, ahead. These Nordic people are an exceptionally professional bunch.



Denmark with its more than 400 islands is understandably ideal for bridge-lovers and already boasts two of the world's most impressive: the Great Belt Fixed Link between East- and West Denmark, and the Oresund bridge. And how about linking eastern Denmark more directly with Germany’s Baltic Sea coastline, a three-hour direct journey to, say, Hamburg? The government has already announced an even grander project for the country's biggest large scale fixed-link: a 19-kilometre road and rail bridge across the Fehmarn strait between Denmark and Germany in order to create a new growth area, similar to the development that has taken place in the Oresund region .

Birth of a new region
The Oresund brigde undeniably folstered growth, giving boost  to both Malmo and Copenhagen. It was designed to serve an explicit dual purpose: cross-border integration, with a particular emphasis on regional productivity, and competitive vitality, as well as the concentration of the North-European pattern of traffic flows. It should function as a backbone of the Oresund Region in order to abolish economic, administrative, institutional, cultural and other barriers, in one common urban system - the integration of Greater Copenhagen and the Malmö-Lund agglomeration, while encouraging citizens to cross the shared border more easily, and give incentives to foreign investors to use the area as a hub of development. Today's Oresund region  with a population of over 3 M produces 26-27 % of Sweden and Denmark's joint GDP, being of  the the most buoyant region in Scandinavia.

A common labour market
The bridge has turned the Oresund area into a single job market. As the  time-distance barrier was reduced dramatically, and the land-see bottleneck was eliminated, the traffic is steadily increasing: every day: 20.000 people commute to work between Sweden and Denmark. A daily average of 19.400 vehicles crossed the Oresund bridge in 2011. All forms of trafic have increased, but commuting has shown the strongest increase by far. Though the past three years brought low growth years for the bridge, mainly as a result of a sharp fall in economic activity caused by the turmoil of the financial crisis, the traffic did not decrease until 2010 (also due to the Swedish krona, which then recovered its former strength in 2010). In addition to greater accessibility, growth in commuting has been driven by the dramatically rising house prices, as well as the increased workforce shortages in the Greater Copenhagen area. Commuting is, therefore, embarassingly one- directional, with around 96 per cent of all commuters living in Sweden and keeping their jobs in the other side of the Oresund. In general, commuters are well-educated and well-paid young people, being pronounced targets of the bridge's policy.

Nordic countries: a happy family?
Nordic identity is alive and well: these countries have a great many things in common, though the Swedes and the Danes were not always the best friends through history (the Oresund area was under Danish authority until 1658). There is certainly a Nordic way of doing business for instance, with consensus as its main watchword. The Nordics put  greater emphasis on partnership and co-operation than most other European counterparts. Then there is religion, Martin Luther, whose reforms left a powerful cultural and moral legacy, leading to exceptionally successful, export-oriented economies. However if the two countries on both sides are to prosper together, Danes and Swedes will have to make efforts of further harmonising labour, tax and social policies. The Oresund region could therefore become a laboratory of transnational regional co-operation within the EU. Development towards a bi-national, integrated, functional urban region is in progress, though the space is much slower, than expected, but doing fairly well. 

Importance of the First Nature Geography in Regional Development


by Otabek Saydikaharov

Spatial inequality in a country could be because of the natural advantages of some regions comparing to others and also due to the agglomeration effects which might lead to clustering of activities. Advantage of first nature geography simply means that being close to rivers, coasts, ports, forests etc. some regions may benefit from natural endowments through specialization in certain type of activities like fishing , growing crops and forestry. A few decades ago, there were two regions in Uzbekistan, Karakalpakstan and Khorezm benefiting from water endowment of Amudarya and Syrdarya rivers and of formerly one of four largest lakes in the world, the Aral Sea. During the Soviet Union, Karakalpakstan and Khorezm specialilised in rice production and were one of the main rice-producing regions in the Soviet Union. After the independence those regions’ specialization did not change and they continued to be Uzbekistan’s largest rice producing regions.

However, during the Soviet Union period two main rivers which are sources of the Aral Sea, the Amudarya and Syrdarya, were channeled only to irrigation and substantially used for agriculture especially in the aim of increasing the amount of cotton and rice production. Unsustainable irrigation projects like a massive irrigation in the Kyzylkum Desert were introduced during this period, and continuing irrational use of water sources after the collapse of Soviet regime created a very serious problem - the evaporation of Aral Sea (see figure 1).

The disaster of the Aral Sea caused huge devastating economic problems especially for the local people in Karakalpakstan and Khorezm who were generating their income only depending on the endowments of the first nature geography. In rural areas of these regions majority of population depend on their farming lands for the livelihood however because of water shortages these lands adversely affected and polluted and as a consequence local economy decreased and rural population encountered economic hardship, malnutrition and illness. The drought in 1999-2001 had a severe effect on Karakalpakstan’s rice production. The agricultural land area decreased and total rice production fell from 414,000 in 1999 to175, 000 tons in 2000.

Once in Karakalpakstan tens of thousands of people were employed in fishing industry but now as a result of careless use of first nature geography this industry no longer exists causing the increase in unemployment rate and threat to poverty. According to the assessment of certain organizations the drying up of the Aral Sea has led to direct and indirect socioeconomic costs of USD 144 million in total.

Substantial amount of chemical pesticides were used in lands to increase the cotton production, and later when country faced water shortages those lands instead turned to be the source of danger. Winds then scattered the dust of chemicals to the surrounding areas causing health problems for the habitats and also damaging the agricultural deeds. According to observations, there are up to 10 major dust and salt storms occurring a year in the region and they are often between 150 and 300 km wide. In these regions, people are mostly suffering from protein and vitamin deficiencies resulting from malnutrition as well as anemia, tuberculosis, immunological problems, birth defects, children’s liver, kidney and respiratory diseases because of ecosystem contamination. The increase in levels of such various diseases has already become one of the main concerns of the government.

Due to the irrational immense use of first nature and myopic regional policy in the past, the current government encountered long term adverse impact of past experience. In order to increase the production of cotton and rice in water abundant regions so as to increase export, careless use of water resources brought huge cost to the government.  The government has been looking for possible ways to recover the Aral Sea and consequently ecosystem condition of that region. One of the options was to bring water from Caspian Sea but after estimations it was found to be too costly. Since it was believed that there is no way which can totally recover the previous condition of Aral Sea regions the government let the habitats of Karakalpakstan and Khorezm to migrate to the capital and get residence permit without any difficulties. As a result of huge migration and increased demand for houses, house prices soared up in the capital which made much more difficult situation for middle class citizens to buy a house in the city.

Since first nature geography matters a lot in the process of individuals’ and firms’ decision making about locations to live or operate, each policy implemented by government should also take its importance in regional development into account. Otherwise, adverse impact might occur and cost the government considerably in the long term as happened in Uzbekistan.

Figure 1. The Shrinking of the Aral Sea: Socio-Economic Impacts

History Matters: Two Significant Barriers to the Regional Policy of Mongolia


by Manlaibaatar Zagdbazar

According to the New Economic Geography theory, history matters because increasing returns to scale generate positive feedbacks that tend to cause economies to “lock in” to particular locations. Here, however, I would like to analyze other kind of reasons to show that history really matters.

1) Path dependence in railway standards.
As railways developed and expanded, one of the key issue was that of the track gauge (the distance, or width, between the inner sides of the rails) that should be used. A large part of the world uses a "standard gauge" of 4 ft 8 1⁄2 in (1,435 mm), while the former Soviet Union countries use a “broad gauge” of 5 ft (1.524mm). When a railway line of one gauge meets a line of another gauge, a break of gauge occurs, which entails big cost and inconvenience to traffic that passes from one system to another. For example, Transmongolian Railway, where Russia and Mongolia use broad gauge while China uses standard gauge; on the border, each carriage has to be lifted in turn to have its wheels changed. The whole operation can take several hours.


This challenge of gauge size does not only inhibit the trade between China and Mongolia, but also makes it more difficult to implement many regional projects in South and East Mongolia – greatly endowed regions full of mineral resources and suitable for other development potentials. In the picture shown below, red dashed lines are new railroad building projects that use “broad standard” gauge. Unfortunately, no one wants to invest into these projects because they still have the break of gauge problem with China’s railways.


2) Political and psychological inertia.
The country of Mongolia is divided into 21 provinces and the capital city. Provinces are subdivided "sums", in total number of 331 items. Such “patched” administrative division is too costly for only 1 million of rural people (total population of Mongolia is about 2.7 million), because each sum has a permanent settlement as administrative center having its own secondary school and dorm, a hospital, a cultural center, and police that are subsidized by central government. To demonstrate, in most sums, school has only few students, while required operational costs are huge: salary for teachers, building maintenance costs, and heating, especially during very cold winter. All these costs cannot be well reasoned under low quality of education. 

Historically, this administrative division was inherited from the socialist time and was originally created to develop the network of collecting livestock by-products. Now, as people migrate to big towns, these artificial administrative centers are being almost deserted. For last two decades, some politicians tried to change the situation by creating bigger administrative units which were supposed to be more efficient and natural, but the majority of politicians and public were against this idea, being morally and emotionally used to having these old units. In addition, the Constitution and the Election code also make it difficult to change the old system and, therefore, “locked in” inefficient artificial spreading still exists.

Consequently, in real life, regional policy can face bigger historical barriers than initially expected. If you create and find better solutions you have to invest enormous amount of efforts and resources to implement it. 

Trans-Siberian Railway: Voice of Siberia


by Ekaterina Serikova

Do you know where Siberia is located? Some Europeans feel that it is just “too far”. I would not exaggerate by saying that even Russians do not always know exactly where this region is located, assuming the periphery of it. However, it would have been even worse  if  in  the  20th   century  the  general  governor  of  Eastern  Siberia  N.  Muravyov- Amurskly did not start to build Great Siberian Way that connected central Russia with Siberia. This railway had significant influences on many areas’ development where it was built, while analyzing its impact on the development of Siberian region is of particular interest. The goal is to show how government  infrastructure projects can give live to economy of a particular region, entailing certain extent of policy selectivity and a matter of history.


The  project  heavily  affected  the  Siberian  region  in  several  aspects:  industry development, trade, labor mobility, foreign investments, and international relations.

Siberia was a huge and well-endowed region, having huge reserves of coal and peat, more than 50% of the whole of Russia’s forest reserves, lots of gold fields, salt, and non- metallic minerals.  Obviously, the Railway aimed to take advantage of these industries, which caused their rapid development. For  example, the changes in gold industry was caused not only by increased gold extraction, but also by structural changes, such as the switch from manufactures to modern factories as well as technical renewing due to easier transporting of necessary inventory and hardware. Thus, despite the Russian-Japanese war, average yearly gold extraction in 1901-1910 was 2289 poods1, which is 127% higher than during the last decade of the 19 century2.  Since the railway needed fuel, coal industry advanced a lot: by 1910 coal extraction already constituted 7% of total Russian coal extraction. Being mostly developed as “servicing” industry for the railway, coal industry growth also improved technological progress in other industries, switching them away  from  firewood   usage.  Other  industries  mentioned  above  were  also  raised significantly: salt, wood, and butter was exported heavily.

Obviously, such intensive industrial growth attracted huge capital inflow in the region. By 1912 a large net of trade places was already created: 60,000 retail shops, total trade in the Siberian part of the railway increased more than in 4 times in 1900-1913.

The Railway also led to the movement of labor to the cities located along the way, which can be explained  by people’s expectations of higher wage and access to larger market. Consequently, the cultivation area was extended together with agriculture growth and increased specialization. 80% of all imports of agricultural machinery in Russia were sent to Siberia because there were huge amount of unused land and lots of labor that came  because  of  the  Railway.  Later,  these  places  became  the  largest  and  the  most developed  Siberian  cities  with  the  highest  land  rent  –  Novosibirsk,  Irkutsk,  Omsk, Krasnoyarsk, which are still fundamentally important  Siberian cities. The creation of large cities and movement of labor into them, however, caused demise of  previously popular trade places, such as the Irbit fair that stayed more than 100km away from the Railway.

However, the overall impact of the railway was not as positive as it seems to be: many economists claim that the Great Siberian Way was the cause of making Siberia a “raw materials adjunct” for the whole of  Russia. As we can observe, development of local industries was not symmetric, it mostly favored industries  that  were connected closely with the needs of the railway. For example, metallurgy died as fast as it was raised  due to railway needs: smelting cast ironing was 540,000 poods in 1895 versus 150,000 poods in 19082.

Beside  this,  relations  between  Russia  and  China  began  to  develop  sharply: merchants from Siberia moved to China as well as a huge number of swindlers flowed into Siberia being attracted by high  profits. The rise of local and international trade caused progress in banking sector: by 1912 there were  already  106 bank offices in Siberia. However, they were mostly involved in trading finance instead of local heavy industry financing.

Being started from a local project connecting central Russia with Siberia, now Trans-Siberian Railroad is the largest international railway in the world that connects Far East with Western Europe, reaching 5,867 miles in length. For the country, it is also the source  of  income  which  has  increased  throughout  the  time  together  with  increased international trade and railway’s capacity. After 100 years of existence, this Railroad can still offer perspective alternatives for the future: there is a plan of prolonging the Railway to Sakhalin Island over the Nailski Strait, which will connect Eurasia with Sakhalin3.

Trans-Siberian Railway demonstrates a dramatic support of successful government interventions  in  economic  life  and  regional  development.  Despite  policy  selectivity favoring some particular places  (cities  along the railway), such interventions can be vitally essential for initial economic development of far regions.


Have Citizens of Belgrade Paid Too Much?


by Snezana Ilic

In everything that man pushes by his vital instinct, builds and raises, nothing is more beautiful or more precious than bridges. Bridges are more important than houses, more sacred because they are more useful than temples. They belong to everybody and they are the same for everybody, always built in the right place in which the major part of human necessity crosses, more durable than all other constructions and they do not serve for anything secret or bad.

Using those words the Yugoslavian writer who was awarded the Nobel Prize for Literature, Ivo Andric, explained his ardor for bridges almost 50 years ago.

The Sava Bridge, Belgrade, Serbia

A few months ago, when I saw  the newly built bridge on the Sava River in Belgrade, Serbia -  I felt the same enthusiasm. The bridge is standing proudly and waiting to be officially opened for traffic in December 2011, aiming to become the new symbol of the city.

The necessity of the bridge is clear having in mind that the city is situated on the constellation of two rivers, the Danube and the Sava, and has 1.7 million residents  with only two functioning bridges across the rivers to connect the old part of the town (The Old Belgrade) and the new one which stands for business center (The New Belgrade). Furthermore, the bridge represents the missing element of the The Inner Major Half-Ring (UMP)  that connects Western and Northern part and much larger area of the city.

However, the opponents of this construction were very loud in the years before the building started. Many architects stated that this bridge would present physical danger, and it would be unsuitable to build a main road through the city core which would give to the residents of Belgrade an enormously expensive and dysfunctional bridge in the wrong place.

According to the results of previous studies on the bridge , estimated positive effects are numerous. First, the results of the analysis which used the volume of traffic in 2005. showed that there would be decrease in mileage by about 100,000 km per day if only passenger cars are taken into consideration. This would save about 11 tons of fuel a day. There would be used  3,250 tons less fuel per year. By 2021 year, when the volume of traffic is expected to increase by 35%, results are even more significant amounting to savings of about 35 tons of fuel per day or 10,000 tons per year. As a consequence of those savings, there will be less air pollution. Second, the average time required for travel would be shorter by around 30 minutes. Third, the new bridge and the ring would reduce traffic flows on existing roads and bridges in the center (30%), and thus eliminate delays and adverse effects caused by this (the project itself provides a series of effective measures of environmental protection, specific pavement, protective sound barrier, etc.). This list can be extended with less tangible benefits such as the bridge would provide a look of a metropolis to the city.

However, now I would like to turn to the indirect economic effects, sometimes more difficult to assess but equally important. Concerning its position, the bridge will provide higher accessibility to the business core of the city which will lead to the higher employment density.

Proof for this can be found in the case of construction the Auckland bridge . Furthermore, in the same study, the strong relationship between employment density and productivity  measured by the average wages was proven. Based on this, one might expect the same relationship to be established between two parts of the Belgrade  that are now connected. This is the case especially because the productivity measured in terms of average wages (Table 1) is the highest in the business part  (out of 17 municipalities). The main factors of agglomeration are benefits arising from increase in wages and productivity coming from densification of activities in urban areas. It is planned to build a tram road across the bridge as part of a public transportation network which will improve accessibility even further since transport possibilities are important in determining whether the city will be dense or detached. 

Table: Annual average wages by municipalities, Belgrade


In addition, the improved accessibility between two parts of the city optimizes land use over the city, and it will surely increase the land prices in the areas close to the bridge.

Having in mind the role that cities can play in enhancing both regional and national development, the significance of an increasing productivity in the cities itself is one of the major urban policies to be considered.

Next time while crossing any bridge make sure to devote a few moments of admire to those magnificent constructions whose great impact we tend to forget. 

Interesting: Discovery channel made a documentary movie “Built it Bigger” about this bridge, since it is the longest single pylon cable bridge in the world.






Wednesday, December 21, 2011

Addiction to Ryanair


by Vija Pakalkaite

A Ryanair story takes place in a tiny airport of Kaunas which is the second largest city in Lithuania. This story could be compared to drug addiction in such a way that it provides euphoria (region is quickly developing), but has its costs (the “health” of a country Lithuania is weakening – people are emigrating).

Short history
Ryanair came to Lithuania in 2005 and chose Kaunas airport to operate. Due to an economically successful launch in 2005, in 2010 Ryanair decided to establish an airplane base in Kaunas airport, which means, that planes not only land-take passengers-leave, but also stay overnight. In addition, Ryanair announced its plans to establish an aircraft technical maintenance center in Kaunas in years to come.

In May 2011 Ryanair announced a very unpleasant surprise to the Kaunas airport (but pleasant to the residents of Vilnius), by announcing it will begin to provide flights from the capital city Vilnius airport as well. However, once a dull and uninteresting Kaunas airport now is full of life. It is planned that in 2011 this airport will serve around 850,000 passengers.

What to expect
Theoretically, if transportation costs are high, the spreading forces would dominate and different sites would try to do all economic activities within the teritorry instead of importing some. As transport costs fall, agglomeration forces will take over. It becomes possible to take advantage of a scale economy and then transport good cheaply to the other sites. This could be applied to the transportation of labor force as well. When flights become cheaper  people would use them to move to the larger cities which already have many residetns and labour. The entry of Ryanair to the Lithuanian airline market was one example of rapidly falling transportation costs to the consumer.

In addition, one of the features of the low-fare airlines is that they choose airports that are not of primary importance to provide their services. Such airports usually charge airlines with no or low fare and expect to gather benefits by providing additional services to the travelers. So they expect that the regional economy around the airports will expand, and airport facilities as well would be expanded.

Special shuttles soon were established
Until Ryanair‘s decision to fly from Vilnius,Kaunas airport was the only „window“ to the world where one could catch a low-fare airplane in Lithuania. As a result, all  passengers who wishedto use Ryanair had to reach Kaunas airport first. This was not so easy for passangers especialy during the night. The entry of Ryanair increased the demand of easing possibilities to reach Kaunas airport, and the supply was subsequently provided.

Special shuttle services were soon provided both in between Kaunas airport and Kaunas city, as well as other largest cities, including Riga which is the capital of Latvia. The former shuttle takes people from the Kaunas airport and brings them to hotels and other places in the Kaunas city then back to the airport. It is a special bus route which schedule is adjusted to the flight schedule. Besides, a “special prolonged stop” in the shopping town “Urmas” with more than 70.000 square meters of retail space was incorporated in the route of the shuttle service. The latter ones, for example, a Lithuanian shuttle taxi operator „Ollex“ bring passengers from Vilnius directly to Kaunas airport (price 11 EUR) and from the seacost city Klaipėda too (price 18 EUR), the schedules of the shuttle are as well tied to the schedules of the Ryanair flights.
Regional development

There were new cafeterias  established in the vicinity of Kaunas airport, some of them even in local residencies. A pizzeria was opened and a couple of bed-and-breakfast places in a nearby disctrict. Near the airport a shopping center is being built as well as a hotel inside the Kaunas airport. When Ryanair opened a base in Kaunas airport in 2010, Kaunas hotels became booked 80% of the time. In the city of Kaunas itself a bunch of new bars was opened, and the existing bars are full of foreigners.

Establishement of Ryanair base also revitalizedthe flat rent business in Kaunas, because pilots and fligh crews  are  renting flats in Kaunas. There are 100 employers in the base, and it is calculated that the establishment of the base directly or indirectly created a thousand of work places in the region.
How Lithuanians “agglomerated” London

However, not everything was so picture perfect. Once a nation of 3.5 million Lithuania now has just 3, 045,000 residents. The country in ten years since 2001 lost 12% of population, out of which 76% because of emigration. The acceptance to the European Union, visa-free Schengen zone and low-fare airlines decreased the price of travelling. During ten years, the region of Kaunas lost around 13% of its residents – similar to the entire average of Lithuania. Most popular destinations to emigrate for Lithuanians are United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, and now, since it opened borders to the labor from new EU members, Germany. It is believed, that in London and nearby it around 100,000 Lithuanians are settled.

This being said, Ryanair routes are adjusted to the emigration habits of Lithuanians. There are 15 routes from Kaunas, out of which 8 fly to various destinations in the UK, one in Ireland, and one in Germany. The rest half dozen of flights go to the Netherlands, Belgium, Norway, France and Finland which could be considered to be more for tourism.

Short conclusion
Ryanair entry to Lithuania via Kaunas indeed gave positive stimulation to the economy of the Kaunas region, but many of the economic activities are directly related with the presence of Ryanair itself. If this airline ever decided to leave Kaunas airport many of the positive effects would soon disappear. Ryanair could have contributed as transportation means for many of the Lithuanians to emigrate and it still does so. However, if not as a result of this airline, a Lithuanian who truly wanted to leave the country would find a way to do it. 

When Irish low-fare company Ryanair decides upon the routes it probably first thinks about the profits it will earn, and only then about the impact to the economy of a region or a country. In this photo you can see the author of the blog post and Ryanair CEO Michael O'Leary in 2010, when he decided to establish a plane base in Kaunas airport.